A CBS News poll heading into the final week before midterm elections suggests a catastrophe for Democrats on November 8th.
“The election is already underway; millions have voted, and tens of millions more will before Nov. 8,” CBS News wrote.
“Amid that, eight in 10 likely voters describe things in the country today as ‘out of control,’ as opposed to ‘under control.’”
This doesn’t bode well for Democrats who currently sit in power.
For the voters who say the country today is ‘out of control,’ Republicans lead by more than 20 points.
Let’s put this into perspective.
That’s an ominous sign for Democrats.
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Watch on Rumble courtesy of Chief Nerd:
*Photo from CBS News*
CBS News reported:
Republicans today remain in good position to win a majority of seats in the House. However, voters’ current intentions suggest anything from a sizable GOP majority to a bare Democratic one possible. Our latest model indicates a range of possibilities, which you can explore using the interactive tool below.
In our baseline model, Republicans lead in 228 seats. It represents a slight shift their way from a few weeks ago, with the party recapturing some of the leads that slipped from them in the summer.
That would constitute a 15-seat gain — lower than average for a party challenging a first-term president in recent history. At that level, the majority line is just on the lower edge of the margin of error for our model.
If you’re watching on election night, this scenario may not be clear right away, depending on which particular seats flip. (Seven in 10 voters do expect it to take at least a few days — maybe more than a week — to know all the results.)
So what, politically, does the scenario look like in which Democrats manage to hold the House? We ran our estimates through a turnout model in which younger voters turn out in much higher numbers than our baseline model indicates, bailing Democrats out late in the game. This would run counter to what we’ve seen in recent weeks, both from what young voters tell us in surveys and from early ballot returns, but it isn’t impossible.
It’s more akin to what happened four years ago, with voters under 45 and people of color voting in droves. Since they are heavily Democratic groups, matching 2018’s record setting turnout would stem Republican gains, turning House control into a toss-up around 218 seats. Were this scenario to materialize, it would take days or weeks into November for a handful of close races to settle and reveal the new balance of power.
Then there’s a big-Republican-turnout scenario, which builds off the trend that we have been seeing: both parties motivated, but Republicans even more so. Specifically, there’s a path to a further uptick driven by an Election-Day turnout surge among White voters without college degrees — a group that showed up for Donald Trump in large numbers.
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